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"Trade-Off": A Study In Global Systemic Collapse


TyrionLannister
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"Something sets off an interrelated Eurozone crisis and banking crisis, a Spanish default say, which spreads

panic and fear across other vulnerable Eurozone countries. This sets off a Minsky moment when

overleveraged speculators in the banking and shadow banking system are forced to unwind positions into a

one-sided (sellers only) market. The financial system contagion passes a tipping point where governments

and central banks start to lose control and panic drives a (positive feedback) deepening and widening of the

impact globally. In our tropic model of the globalised economy, the banking and monetary system keystonehub

comes out of its equilibrium range, crosses a tipping point, and is driven away by positive feedbacks to

some new state.

This directly links to another keystone-hub, production flows. Failing banks, fears of currency re-issue,

fears of further default, collapse in Letters of Credit, and growing panic directly quickly shut down trade in

the most affected countries. As the week progresses factories close, communications are impaired, social

stress and government panic increases. After a week almost all businesses are closed, there is a rising risk to

critical infrastructure.

Almost immediately internal trade and imports stops in the most affected countries, and there is impairment

in a growing number of other countries. Trade is impaired globally via a credit crunch. This undermines

exports from some of the most trade-central countries, with some of the most efficient JIT dependencies in

the world. This cuts inputs into the production and trade into countries that were initially weakly affected by

direct financial contagion. Globally, the spread of trade contagion depends on complexity, centrality, and

inventory times and once a critical threshold is passed spreads exponentially until the effect is damped by a

large-scale global production collapse (implying another keystone-hub, economies of scale is driven out of

equilibrium).

Trade contagion and its implications feed back into financial system contagion, helping drive further

disintegration. The interacting and mutually destabilising effects of keystone-hubs coming out of equilibrium

destroy the equilibrium of the globalised economy initiating a systemic collapse.

Growing risk displacement in an increasingly vulnerable system is increasing the risk of system failure.

Once the financial system contagion crosses a particular threshold the de-stabilisation of the globalised

economy will be exceedingly difficult to arrest; this point may be in as little as ten days. Once a major

system collapse occurs, scale, hysteresis, entropy, loss of critical functions, recursion failure, and resource

diversion is likely to ensure that the features associated with the previous dynamic state of the globalised

economy can never be recovered."

 

En het gewone volk zich maar druk maken over het feit dat de stiefzoon van Usher aan de beademing ligt, dat Christina Curry het huwelijk van d'r pa niet kan bijwonen vanwege visaproblemen en dat de zoon van Sylvester Stalone al drie dagen dood is. :(

 

"Turning and turning in the widening gyre

The falcon cannot hear the falconer;

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world"

 

-- W.B. Yeats The Second Coming

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Hoe een economische collapse eruit zou kunnen zien:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WI8dfFN7H1w

 

Stukje uit de film Rollover uit 1981.

 

Die staat ook integraal op YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDWWENGUhO4

 

Griezelig accuraat, voorspelde dertig jaar geleden al (voordat de huidige tijd van het "snelle geld" zijn aantrede deed) al hoe het gesjoemel van een paar bankiers en speculanten een wereldwijde crash tot gevolg kan hebben.

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